Market Watch - Home Sales And New Listings Were Up On An Annual And Monthly Basis In February 2024

We have recently seen a resurgence in sales activity compared to last year. The market assumption is that the Bank of Canada has finished hiking rates. Consumers are now anticipating rate cuts in the near future. A growing number of homebuyers have also come to terms with elevated mortgage rates over the past two years. To minimize higher monthly payments, some buyers have likely saved up a larger down payment, chosen to purchase a less-expensive home type and/or looked to a different location in the GTA

Toronto, 04 MARCH 2024 -- Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales and new listings were up on an annual and monthly basis in February 2024. Selling prices also edged upward compared to a year earlier. Population growth and a resilient regional economy continued to support the overall demand for housing. Higher borrowing costs kept home sales below the February sales record reached in 2021.

“We have recently seen a resurgence in sales activity compared to last year. The market assumption is that the Bank of Canada has finished hiking rates. Consumers are now anticipating rate cuts in the near future. A growing number of homebuyers have also come to terms with elevated mortgage rates over the past two years. To minimize higher monthly payments, some buyers have likely saved up a larger down payment, chosen to purchase a less-expensive home type and/or looked to a different location in the GTA,” said TRREB President Jennifer Pearce.

REALTORS® reported 5,607 GTA home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in February 2024 – an increase of 17.9% compared to February 2023. Even after accounting for the leap year effect, sales were up by 12.3% yearover-year. New listings were up by an even greater annual rate than sales in February, pointing to increased choice for buyers. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, February sales were lower following two consecutive monthly increases while new listings were flat. Monthly figures can be somewhat volatile, especially when the market is approaching a transition point.

Home selling prices in February 2024 remained similar to February 2023. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark edged up by 0.4%. The average selling price of $1,108,720 increased by a modest 1.1%. On a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, both the MLS® HPI Composite and the average selling price edged upward.

“As we move through 2024, an increasing number of buyers will re-enter the market with adjusted housing preferences to account for higher borrowing costs. In the second half of the year, lower interest rates will further boost demand for ownership housing. First-time buying activity will also be a contributing factor, as many renters look to trade high monthly rents for a long-term investment in which they can live and build equity,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“Population growth has been at a record pace and with the anticipated lower borrowing costs, the demand for housing – both ownership and rental – will also increase over the next two years. Unaffordable housing not only has a financial impact but also a social impact. Recent research conducted for TRREB by CANCEA in our 2024 Market Outlook and Year in Review report underscores the negative impact of unaffordable housing on peoples’ mental health and life satisfaction. It’s comforting to see that there has been some real building happening in the GTA and that the provincial government is rewarding those municipalities that are working to eliminate the red tape and meet those homeownership needs,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

Ottawa’s Market Activity Shows Strong Start to the Year

Ottawa, 04 March 2O24 --The number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board totaled 886 units in February 2024. This was an increase of 15.2% from February 2023.

Home sales were 13.8% below the five-year average and 5.7% below the 10-year average for the month of February.

“Even with higher prices and the interest rate holding steady, Ottawa is a strong, active market,” says OREB President Curtis Fillier. “With metrics across the board up from last year, it’s clear both buyers and sellers are making moves. The metrics, however, don’t tell us about all the people relegated to the sidelines because affordability remains out of reach for many.”

The Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC) recently reported that “communities with homes under $500,000 are becoming increasingly scarce.” A decade ago, 74% of Ontario residential properties had a home value estimate of less than $500,000 but that number has dropped to just 19% today.

“REALTORS® know firsthand there is persistent demand for housing in Ottawa, and our market’s activity is constrained by a lack of affordable and suitable supply,” says Fillier. “That’s why we’re currently advocating for impactful measures such as allowing four residential units on property lots and getting rid of exclusionary zoning. There’s a missing middle that we need to build up.”

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.

The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $628,500 in February 2024, a gain of 2.8% from February 2023.

The benchmark price for single-family homes was $708,500, up 3.1% on a year-over-year basis in February.

By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit was $495,000, up slightly at 0.6% compared to a year earlier.

The benchmark apartment price was $417,000, up 2.7% from year-ago levels.

The average price of homes sold in February 2024 was $651,340, increasing 2% from February 2023.

The dollar volume of all home sales in February 2024 was $577 million, up 17.5% from the same month in 2023.

OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Prices will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

The number of new listings saw an increase of 29.5% from February 2023. There were 1,539 new residential listings in February 2024. New listings were 10.3% above the five-year average and 3.3% below the 10-year average for the month of February.

Active residential listings numbered 2,158 units on the market at the end of February 2024, a gain of 16.3% from February 2023. Active listings were 59.6% above the five-year average and 17.7% below the 10-year average for the month of February.

Months of inventory numbered 2.4 at the end of February 2024, unchanged from February 2023. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

Alberta - Low inventory and high demand drive price gains in February

City of Calgary, March 1, 2024 – New listings continued to rise in February, reaching 2,711 units. However, the rise in new listings supported further growth in sales, which increased by nearly 23% compared to last year for a total of 2,135 units. The shift in sales and new listings kept the sales-to-new listings ratio exceptionally high at 79%, ensuring inventories remained near historic lows. Low supply and higher sales caused the months of supply to fall to just over one month, nearly as tight as levels seen during the spring of last year.

Purchasers are acting quickly when new supply comes onto the market, preventing inventory growth in the market," said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “It is this strong demand and low supply that continues to drive price gains in Calgary. The biggest supply challenge is for homes priced under $500,000, which saw inventories fall by 31% compared to last February. At the same time, we are starting to see supply levels rise for higher priced homes supporting more balanced conditions in the upper end.

In February, the unadjusted benchmark price was $585,000, an over two% gain compared to last month and over 10% higher than levels reported at this time last year. Our most affordable East district is experiencing the highest year-over-year price growth at 25%, while the relatively better-supplied City Centre has reported the slowest price growth in the city at under five%.

Detached - In February, 1,195 new listings came onto the market, of which 75% were priced over $600,000. While new listings did improve over last month in line with seasonal expectations, levels are still below typical levels for February. At the same time, sales in February rose to 954 units, a year-over-year gain of 20%. The growth in sales was driven by where we saw listings growth, but with a sales-to-new listings ratio of nearly 80%, inventory levels were near record lows for February.

Exceptionally tight market conditions drove further price growth. In February, the unadjusted detached benchmark price rose to $721,300, nearly three% higher than last month and over 13% higher than last February. While prices rose across every district, the most significant year-over-year gains occurred in the North East and East districts.

Semi-Detached - Last month’s rise in listings compared to sales was short-lived, as the 223 new listings this month were met with 191 sales, driving up the sales-to-new-listings ratio to 86%. This prevented any significant change to the low inventory situation and caused the months of supply to fall to just over one month.

In February, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $639,100, a monthly gain of over two% and 13% higher than last year. Year-over-year price gains ranged from a low of 10% in the City Centre to over 26% in the East district.

Row - New listings rose to 457 units in February, contributing to the year-to-date increase in new listings of 22%. The rise in new listings supported sales growth, preventing any significant change to the low inventory situation. For the second consecutive month, the months of supply were below one month.

The exceptionally tight market conditions have contributed to strong price growth for row properties. In February, the unadjusted detached price reached $436,500, over 2% higher than last month and nearly 19% higher than levels reported last February. Prices rose across all districts, with the highest growth occurring in the most affordable districts.

Apartment Condominium - Sales in February reached 638 units, contributing to the year-to-date sales increase of 39%. Relative affordability has supported the strong demand for apartment-style homes, and sales growth has been possible thanks to the continued growth in new listings. Inventory levels trended up over the last month in line with seasonal expectations. However, inventory levels declined by 12% compared to last year, ensuring the market continued to favour the seller with just over one month of supply.

Persistently tight conditions continued to place upward pressure on home prices. Prices have steadily increased since January of last year, and as of February, they reached $329,600, a 17% gain over last February. Prices rose across every district in the city, with year-over-year gains surpassing 19% in all districts except the City Centre, which reported a year-over-year gain of 13%.

Britsh Columbia -  Home sellers active, bring much-needed inventory to housing market

Metro Vancouver 15 February 2024 -- While Metro Vancouver home sellers appeared somewhat hesitant in January, new listings rose 31% year-over-year in February, bringing a significant number of newly listed properties to the market.

Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR)2 reports that residential sales3 in the region totalled 2,070 in February 2024, a 13.5% increase from the 1,824 sales recorded in February 2023. This was 23.3% below the 10-year seasonal average (2,699).

"While the pace of home sales started the year off briskly, the pace of newly listed properties in January was slower by comparison. A continuation of this pattern in February would have been concerning, as it could quickly tilt the market towards overheated conditions."

Andrew Lis, REBGV director of economics and data analytics

“With new listings up about 31% year-over-year in February, this will relieve some of the pressure that was building in January and offer buyers more choice as we enter the spring and summer markets.”

There were 4,560 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in February 2024. This represents a 31.1% increase compared to the 3,478 properties listed in February 2023. This was 0.2% below the 10-year seasonal average (4,568).

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,634, a 16.3% increase compared to February 2023 (8,283). This is three% above the 10-year seasonal average (9,352).

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for February 2024 is 22.4%. By property type, the ratio is 16% for detached homes, 27.9% for attached, and 25.9% for apartments.

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20% over several months.

Sales-to-active listings ratio - February 2024

“Even with the increase in new listings however, standing inventory levels were not high enough relative to the pace of sales to mitigate price acceleration in February, with most segments of the market moving into sellers’ territory,” Lis said.

“This competitive dynamic has led to modest price growth across all market segments this month, but it’s noteworthy that benchmark prices remain below the peak observed in the spring of 2022, before the market internalized the full effect of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,183,300. This represents a 4.5% increase over February 2023 and a 1.9% increase compared to January 2024.

Sales of detached homes in February 2024 reached 560, an 8.3% increase from the 517 detached sales recorded in February 2023. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,972,400. This represents a 7.2% increase from February 2023 and a 1.5% increase compared to January 2024.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,092 in February 2024, a 17.7% increase compared to the 928 sales in February 2023. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $770,700. This represents a 5.6% increase from February 2023 and a 2.5% increase compared to January 2024.

Attached home sales in February 2024 totalled 403, a 10.1% increase compared to the 366 sales in February 2023. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,094,700. This represents a 4.2% increase from February 2023 and a 2.6% increase compared to January 2024.

1 Areas covered by Greater Vancouver REALTORS® include: Bowen Island, Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, New Westminster, North Vancouver, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Richmond, South Delta, Squamish, Sunshine Coast, Vancouver, West Vancouver, and Whistler.

2 On February 12, 2024, The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver changed its organizational name to the Greater Vancouver REALTORS®.

3 GVR is now including multifamily and land sales and listings in this monthly report. Previously, we only included detached, attached, and apartment sales, and these additional categories, which typically account for roughly one to two% of total MLS® activity per month, are being included for completeness in our reporting.